Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party stands on the brink of securing a majority government as voters head to the polls in three crucial by-elections on Monday. A successful outcome could reshape Canada's political landscape, granting Carney greater legislative freedom and potentially delaying the next federal election until 2029.
Currently holding 171 of the 343 seats in the House of Commons—just one short of a technical majority—the Liberals are widely expected to capture two Toronto-area ridings: Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale. These seats were previously occupied by former Defence Minister Bill Blair, now ambassador to the UK, and Chrystia Freeland, a former deputy prime minister under Justin Trudeau who now advises Ukraine.
The third contest in Terrebonne, a Montreal suburb, is considered a tight race between the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois. This riding's outcome was nullified by Canada's Supreme Court in February due to a clerical error involving a postal ballot, after the Liberal candidate won by a single vote in last year's federal election.
Victories in the Toronto ridings alone would be enough to hand Carney a narrow majority. However, the prime minister has already bolstered his parliamentary ranks through a series of defections from opposition parties, including four former Conservatives and one member of the left-wing New Democratic Party.
Semra Sevi, a political science professor at the University of Toronto, described the recent wave of party-switching as "extraordinary." She noted, "Carney has built a big tent, attracting members of parliament who would not normally be associated with the Liberal party. The complication, however, is that the tent may now be so big that there isn't a lot of ideological coherence in it."
Carney has faced scrutiny over the defection of Marilyn Gladu, a former Conservative MP once viewed as socially conservative and "personally pro-life," though she has stated she supports access to abortion services. Carney has defended the move, asserting that the party's "values" remain unchanged and that Gladu will vote in line with Liberal positions.
Polls indicate the Liberals maintain a 10- to 15-point lead over the Conservatives, with Carney himself enjoying strong public support. Under his leadership, the party has shifted toward more conservative policies, distancing itself from Trudeau-era initiatives by ending a consumer carbon tax and advocating for Canada to become an "energy superpower" while reducing the public sector workforce.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has criticized the defections as "undemocratic," accusing the Liberals of "backroom deals" and arguing that Carney's actions undermine voters' trust. Sevi added that frustration is growing within the Conservative caucus over Poilievre's leadership style and the diminishing prospects of forming a government under his direction.
Recent media reports suggest the Liberals are actively courting additional opposition MPs to cross the floor. At a party convention in Montreal on Saturday, Carney emphasized unity in his closing speech, stating, "Canada's founding insight is that unity does not require uniformity."