The United States is three weeks into "Operation Epic Fury," a decisive military campaign aimed at crippling the Islamic Republic of Iran. But as the dust settles on early airstrikes, a pressing question remains: Is the administration actually winning this war?
In a recent analytical exchange, Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argued that the U.S. is indeed achieving its primary goals. According to Dubowitz, the mission laid out by President Trump was clear-cut: dismantle Iran's capacity to wage war by destroying its missile program, its navy, and its nuclear infrastructure. Through coordinated efforts with Israeli forces, the U.S. military has dealt devastating blows to Iranian power projection.
Dubowitz noted that the Iranian Navy has been effectively "decimated," adding that recent Israeli strikes have also severely set back Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
However, tactical victories in the air and at sea have not quelled the immediate chaos in the region. Despite taking heavy losses, Iranian forces retain the ability to launch missiles and rockets at neighboring nations. More alarmingly, Tehran has successfully choked off the Strait of Hormuz. This blockade has sent shockwaves through global energy markets and continues to threaten vital civilian infrastructure across the Persian Gulf, including oil facilities, desalinization centers, and power plants.
This grim reality complicates the narrative of a swift American victory. Yet, defense analysts like Dubowitz maintain that the current regional turmoil—what is being dubbed the "Battle of Hormuz"—was an unavoidable confrontation.
The core defense of the military operation rests on the danger of waiting. Proponents argue that under the timeline of previous diplomatic agreements, Iran would have eventually emerged with an industrial-scale nuclear program and a formidable stockpile of intercontinental ballistic missiles. By preemptively launching Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. and Israel forced the conflict to happen while they held the overwhelming tactical advantage, rather than fighting a much stronger, nuclear-armed adversary down the road.
Ultimately, the true measure of success for this military campaign hinges on the ongoing standoff in the Strait of Hormuz. As global markets brace for further instability, the U.S. military's ability to reopen this vital global artery will likely determine whether the current administration can legitimately claim a lasting strategic victory.