In a recent Armed Forces Day address, Myanmar's military leader Gen. Min Aung Hlaing proclaimed the nation's "firm commitment" to democratic and federal principles. This declaration comes from the same figure whose regime seized power in 2021 and has since presided over a conflict that has claimed approximately 90,000 lives and displaced 3.6 million people.
Hlaing's attempts to reshape his image as a reformist leader have largely failed to gain traction. Recent cosmetic changes, including a three-phased parliamentary election, were designed to lend legitimacy to military rule but have been widely condemned as fraudulent. The electoral process was systematically rigged to favor the military-backed Union and Solidarity Party (USDP), while opposition parties—including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy—were dissolved before voting began.
"Asean has not been very successful in actually changing the situation in Myanmar," admitted Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., highlighting the regional bloc's stalled efforts to implement a five-point peace plan.
The newly formed parliament, dominated by the USDP, is expected to formalize Hlaing's transition from military to civilian leadership in April. However, this political theater unfolds against a backdrop of severe internal and external challenges.
Internally, the junta faces persistent resistance from ethnic militias controlling significant territory, particularly along the Chinese border. While these groups have inflicted substantial damage on the military regime, they remain fragmented and, according to an Al Jazeera analysis, some operate "more akin to a heavily armed cartel with administrative capacities rather than an ideologically or politically motivated armed movement."
Externally, maintaining relations with China remains critical. Beijing has mediated ceasefires between the junta and borderland rebels and seeks assurances that these agreements will hold to prevent a refugee crisis. Chinese authorities have also pressured Myanmar to dismantle online scam centers targeting Chinese citizens—operations that reportedly continue through collusion with government officials.
Perhaps the most pressing crisis is humanitarian. The UN World Food Program identifies Myanmar as the world's fifth hungriest nation, with 12.4 million people struggling to find food.
"Rising fertilizer costs and restricted fuel access for machinery threaten the upcoming cultivation season," warned Michael Dunford, WFP's Myanmar director. "Production costs are expected to double if instability continues."
Myanmar relies heavily on Iranian urea imports for fertilizer—and, reportedly, explosives—with annual shipments between 400,000 and 600,000 tons. The combination of agricultural disruption and broader instability threatens to exacerbate food shortages.
"Myanmar is expected to experience significant post-harvest losses that threaten to reduce food supply, driving prices even higher and putting basic staples out of reach for millions who have lost their jobs and livelihoods," noted Maximo Torero, chief economist of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.
For Hlaing's government, navigating these overlapping crises—from military resistance and diplomatic pressures to humanitarian catastrophe—has become a fundamental test of survival.