Amid escalating tensions and aggressive military maneuvers, the geopolitical showdown between the United States and Iran has reached a critical juncture. Recently, the Trump administration paused a planned military strike on Iranian power plants—an operation contingent on Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Alongside this delay are swirling, albeit nebulous, rumors of potential backdoor diplomatic talks. However, for staunch proponents of a hardline approach, the overarching strategy extends far beyond temporary truces or renegotiated deals.
Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a prominent foreign policy hawk, argues that the U.S. is already achieving substantial success. In a recent discussion exploring the trajectory of the conflict, Dubowitz offered a stark assessment of what victory looks like in the Middle East, asserting that America and its allies are systematically dismantling the Islamic Republic's war-making capabilities.
According to Dubowitz, the ongoing military campaign is undeniably succeeding when measured against the administration's core objectives: neutralizing Iran's missile, naval, and nuclear threats. Pointing to the severe degradation of Iran's military infrastructure, Dubowitz noted that Tehran previously boasted the largest missile stockpile in the region, manufacturing roughly 100 new ballistic missiles every month. Today, he claims that production rate has plummeted to zero, with launcher capacities slashed by two-thirds and the Iranian Navy largely decimated.
While the exact status of Iran's nuclear program remains difficult to quantify, Dubowitz attributes massive setbacks to a combination of prior military engagements and targeted Israeli strikes over recent weeks. Even if the United States halts its direct bombing campaigns, he suggests that allowing allied forces to repeatedly strike and suppress Iranian capabilities—a tactic often referred to as "mowing the grass"—will prevent Tehran from reconstituting its forces.
Yet, for Dubowitz, crippling the military is merely phase one. True, long-term success requires fundamentally altering the nation's political landscape. "Our vision of total victory is the end of the regime in Iran," he states, reiterating a stance he recently detailed in The Atlantic.
Crucially, this vision for regime change does not involve a full-scale American invasion. Instead, Dubowitz advocates for empowering "Iranian boots on the ground." He argues that applying maximum external pressure while overtly and covertly supporting a deeply disillusioned Iranian populace will eventually fracture the regime's foundation. Highlighting the government's violent crackdowns on massive domestic protests earlier this year, Dubowitz believes that the internal animosity toward the ruling clerics is profound enough to spark a revolution from within.
As international observers wait to see how the looming, potentially decisive showdown over the Strait of Hormuz unfolds, the ultimate question remains: Will the systematic dismantling of Iran's military apparatus pave the way for the collapse of the Islamic Republic, or will it merely buy a temporary reprieve in a historically volatile region?