Food security in Africa is threatened by ongoing instability in the Strait of Hormuz, which is disrupting global fertiliser trade. The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has put at risk the supply of crucial inputs like ammonia, urea, phosphate, and sulphur that are essential for farming in sub-Saharan Africa.
Approximately one-quarter of global ammonia trade and over a third of seaborne urea pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any perceived risk can drive up fertiliser prices, halt shipments, and spike food inflation. This scenario echoes past crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which exposed the world's dependence on a few export hubs and vulnerable transport routes.
Sub-Saharan Africa imports about 80% of its fertiliser, often at higher prices than Europe due to freight and logistics. When global supply falters, African farmers suffer the most. For many governments, fertiliser security directly impacts food security and, consequently, economic and social stability.
Smallholder farmers, who produce nearly 70% of sub-Saharan Africa's food, are hardest hit. Unlike large commercial farms, they lack the cash to secure supplies early and face limited options or steep price hikes.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, a 10% reduction in fertiliser availability could cut maize, rice, and wheat yields by up to 25%, triggering food inflation of up to 8%.
In response to the war in Ukraine, the African Development Bank Group launched the $1.5 billion African Emergency Food Production Facility in 2022. It has supported nearly 16 million smallholder farmers in 35 countries with climate-smart seeds and fertiliser, generating 46 million tonnes of food worth $19 billion. The facility's second phase shifts from emergency relief to long-term food sovereignty.
However, African policymakers must act on five fronts to mitigate immediate risks and build resilience:
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Strengthen market intelligence: Real-time tracking of trade flows and prices can help anticipate disruptions. Data sharing between regional institutions can assess exposure and coordinate action.
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Coordinate regional procurement and buffer stocks: Pooling demand allows for better negotiation and reduces risks from export bans or freight spikes. Shared reserves can stabilise markets.
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Expand domestic and regional production: Countries like Morocco, Nigeria, Kenya, and Ethiopia are building capacity, but scale is limited. Public-private partnerships should invest in blending plants, ports, railways, and promote organic fertilisers.
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Protect smallholder farmers: Well-targeted subsidies, digital voucher systems, and seasonal credit can shield farmers from price volatility.
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Support the Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Initiative: Adopted in 2024, its 10-year plan aims to reverse soil degradation, boost productivity, triple fertiliser use, restore degraded soil, and double cereal yields.
As the 2026 planting season approaches, swift collaboration among governments, regional organisations, and private partners is crucial. The World Bank's AgriConnect programme, launched in late 2025 with the African Development Bank, exemplifies this partnership by combining digital farming advice, credit access, and climate-smart practices.
Tensions in the Gulf remind us that disruptions in distant shipping lanes can raise food prices in African homes thousands of kilometres away. Multilateral banks and regional agencies must align funding with fertiliser security priorities. Acting quickly can turn this crisis into an opportunity to build Africa's long-term food and economic sovereignty.