The country seems to be tiring of the Trump era. Now what?
In a recent discussion, New York Times Opinion contributor E.J. Dionne and Sarah Isgur, editor of SCOTUSblog, joined Robert Siegel to analyze the dramatic political realignment underway in the United States. The conversation touched on foreign policy shifts, the Republican Party's identity crisis, and the changing dynamics with China.
All the warnings that Republicans shouldn't support Donald Trump because there were things more important than power evaporated the moment the Senate majority was dangled before them. The panel noted that Trump's approach to foreign policy has evolved significantly since his first term.
During his first administration, Trump's initial toughness on China actually became a bipartisan position, with Joe Biden maintaining a hard line. But now, the situation is markedly different. The Chinese perception of the United States has shifted drastically, with consensual opinion in China now viewing America as definitively in decline—a decline they attribute in part to Trump.
Sarah Isgur highlighted the domestic polarization that colors American foreign policy discussions. Conversations about a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which were common during Trump's first term, have faded because no one believes there would be a unified response. The Republican Party has moved from one standard deviation away from traditional Republican politics to two or three standard deviations away under this administration.
Trump appears to treat Russia and China as co-equals, dividing the world into three sovereigns: Russia, China, and the United States. This represents a radical break from Cold War Republican thinking. E.J. Dionne pointed out that Trump's tariffs against China reminded Beijing of its leverage on rare earths, and he ultimately backed off on tough tariffs while being much tougher on allies—a bizarre turn that owes to the three-hegemon theory.
Isgur argued that the rapid political realignment has left many Republicans dizzy. Trump's hold on the party is now divorced from policy or conservative philosophy. Republican senators don't even know what the party's foreign policy is, as it shifts even from what Trump campaigned on in 2024. Trump's focus on personal relationships, emphasizing his bond with Xi Jinping over national interests, makes it hard for the party to follow a coherent strategy.
The panel expressed concern about an American president so eager to be friendly with Putin and Xi, noting that it's genuinely frightening because they are not Canada.