China has announced it will eliminate tariffs on imports from all African countries starting Friday, with the sole exception of Eswatini, the last African nation maintaining diplomatic ties with Taiwan. The move expands a previous duty-free policy for 33 least-developed African nations to now cover 53 countries, and will remain in effect until April 30, 2028.
Beijing has touted this as a first among major economies in offering unilateral zero-tariff access to Africa, positioning itself as a champion of free trade amid growing global protectionism. However, analysts caution that while the gesture enhances China's soft power, tariffs are rarely the primary barrier for African exporters.
"China is positioning itself as the trade liberaliser and Africa-friendly economic partner, in contrast to Donald Trump and the US," said Lauren Johnston, a senior research fellow at the AustChina Institute. The US had previously imposed tariffs of up to 30% on some African nations, though many have since been reduced after Supreme Court rulings.
The expansion could boost African agricultural exports, potentially raising rural incomes and reducing poverty, Johnston noted. However, Sino-African trade remains heavily imbalanced in China's favor. Africa's trade deficit with China surged 65% last year to around $102 billion, with African exports dominated by raw materials like crude oil and metallic ores.
Differentiated gains across the continent are expected. More industrialized economies such as South Africa and Morocco are better positioned to ramp up exports. Jervin Naidoo, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, pointed out that many African economies still face structural constraints—limited industrial capacity, weak logistics, and reliance on raw commodity exports—that tariff reductions alone cannot solve.
Alfred Schipke, director of the East Asian Institute in Singapore, said the short-term economic impact will likely be modest and concentrated in countries with existing export capacity. Over the long term, potential could be greater if African nations expand production, diversify exports, and move up the value chain. Changing consumer demand in China, such as increased appetite for coffee and nuts, could open new markets.
Economist Ken Gichinga highlighted benefits for Kenya's avocado sector and agriculture overall, including macadamia nuts, coffee, tea, and leather. But fiscal policy economist Wangari Kebuchi stressed that zero tariffs on raw materials could entrench existing trade asymmetries, limiting revenue and job creation. "African governments must now ask the harder questions: How do we use improved market access as leverage for industrial policy?"
The exclusion of Eswatini, one of only 12 countries with formal ties to Taiwan, is widely seen as a political move with limited economic impact. China views Taiwan as a breakaway province and has pressured other nations to sever diplomatic relations. Amit Jain noted the exclusion "may even help Eswatini win more economic concessions from Taiwan." Political scientist Wen-Ti Sung said China is "weaponising its ties with African countries, showing how relations with China comes with strings attached."