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China's First-Quarter GDP Growth Returns to 3.4%, Recovery Remains Fragile

Business
May 4, 2026 · 1:30 AM
China's First-Quarter GDP Growth Returns to 3.4%, Recovery Remains Fragile

China's economy grew at a 3.4% annual pace in the first quarter, rebounding from a sharp slowdown but with the recovery still uneven and fragile amid ongoing COVID-19 disruptions and weak consumer demand.

The figure, released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday, met expectations and marked an improvement from the previous quarter's 2.9% expansion. However, analysts warn that the rebound remains precarious as the property sector continues to struggle and global headwinds persist.

"The recovery is still unbalanced, with consumption lagging behind industrial production," said a Beijing-based economist. "Policymakers may need to do more to support domestic demand."

Industrial output rose 3.9% year-on-year in March, beating forecasts, while retail sales increased 5.8%, missing estimates. Fixed asset investment grew 5.1% in the first three months, supported by infrastructure spending.

Despite the better-than-expected GDP reading, the job market remains under pressure with the surveyed unemployment rate standing at 5.5% in March. Youth unemployment, at 18.3%, continues to be a concern.

The Chinese government has set a full-year growth target of "around 5%," but achieving this may require additional stimulus measures as the global economy slows and geopolitical tensions rise.