This week's grain markets are seeing a boost from planting progress, dry conditions in Brazil, and renewed trade discussions with China. Shay Foulk and Cargill's Alex Londerville break down the latest trends in corn, soybeans, and wheat.
Key drivers
- Corn futures rallied on concerns over Brazil's safrinha crop due to dryness, while U.S. planting advances.
- Soybeans and wheat also gained, supported by export demand and speculation about Chinese buying.
- Crude oil volatility and policy uncertainty around 45Z and Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) add complexity.
Farmer-held stocks A correction from the episode: On-farm corn storage in Nebraska alone is 120 million bushels higher than last year. Across Nebraska, Minnesota, Illinois, and Iowa, total year-over-year stored bushels are up 580 million. This suggests many farmers are holding old-crop corn, waiting for better prices.
What to watch
- China trade talks: any progress could lift soybean and corn exports.
- Planting speed: rapid planting may pressure prices later.
- Profit-taking opportunities: Foulk advises farmers to monitor rallies closely during planting season.
The full video provides deeper analysis on each of these factors.