Political scientist Lee Drutman warns that the combination of aggressive gerrymandering and geographic partisan sorting is driving competitive House races to a record minimum. In an interview on "The Ezra Klein Show," Drutman notes that only about 15 House seats are considered genuine toss-ups for the upcoming November election—down from roughly 50 two decades ago.
Drutman explains that the term "maximum warfare everywhere all the time," used by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, reflects a strategy where the party in control of a state legislature maximises its seat count, regardless of how narrow its majority is. This turns the House into something like the Electoral College, effectively eliminating competitive elections in many districts.
"I think the latest analysis suggests we’ll only have 15 meaningful toss-ups in this November election, out of 435," Drutman said. "Twenty years ago it was closer to 50."
The decline is attributed to two main factors: deliberate gerrymandering and the natural sorting of voters into ideologically homogeneous communities. Democrats cluster in Democratic-leaning areas, and Republicans in Republican-leaning areas, making most districts safe for one party. Gerrymandering then exacerbates this trend by drawing district lines to further protect incumbents and suppress competition.
In the Southern states, Drutman highlights that Republican-controlled legislatures could target as many as 19 majority-minority districts currently held by Democrats. Eliminating these districts would significantly reduce Black representation in Congress. While some caution is expected given the political climate, the overall trajectory points to fewer competitive races and diminished electoral accountability.