How the contest is shaping up two weeks ahead of crucial Makerfield by-election
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How the contest is shaping up two weeks ahead of crucial Makerfield by-election
3 hours ago
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Chris Mason Political editor
Reuters
Labour's Andy Burnham is still dancing delicately in the language he is choosing to use about his ambitions, but his remarks on the BBC's Question Time were a hop and a shimmy further than he has stepped before.
It is worth looking at his wording carefully: "I think Wes Streeting seems to have launched a leadership contest, so if that is running, I would seek to join it. But I'd have to persuade members of the Parliamentary Labour Party to do the same."
Clearly Burnham is desperate not to be seen to be presumptuous, at any potential stage in this process – not least to the people of the Makerfield constituency who he needs to win over in the next couple of weeks.
Streeting, the former health secretary, has not formally launched a contest either, but Burnham is suggesting he would join an existing contest rather than trigger one himself.
This is a subtle distinction, but a distinction Burnham's allies do point to – to again seek to emphasise he is not trigger happy, he is not seeking to get ahead of himself.
But let's be frank: Fiona Bruce and Question Time weren't in Ashton-in-Makerfield at random and Andy Burnham doesn't suffer from a deficit of ambition.
In fact his very mention of the prospect of a contest goaded Downing Street into restating the prime minister's position, with a No10 spokesman pointing out that "the Labour Party has a process for challenging a leader and it has not been triggered. The prime minister will not walk away from the mandate he was given just two years ago."
Makerfield by-election candidates announced
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They didn't quite say "get lost Andy (at least for now)" but it felt just a little bit like that in its sentiment.
The prime minister's friends continue to emphasise Sir Keir Starmer's determination, while acknowledging the brutal political reality he confronts – particularly if Burnham wins in Makerfield later this month.
And the Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy has repeated today that "if there is a contest, he'll be in it" – a reference to the prime minister's insistence he wants to stick around.
What else stood out from the Question Time exchanges?
Andy Burnham said carrying knives for religious reasons "needs to be looked at," a debate prompted by the killer of Henry Nowak carrying a kirpan, a Sikh sword or dagger.
Burnham also said his outlook on the question of whether there was what some call "two tier policing" in the UK was shaped by the attitude of Sir Stephen Watson, Greater Manchester's Chief Constable, who he said had made a point of saying a few years ago that he wouldn't take the knee, for instance, to avoid any perception of not treating everyone equally before the law.
Reform's candidate Robert Kenyon was also striking in his repeated insistence that "violence is never the answer" after the disturbances in Southampton earlier this week.
Kenyon's tone, emphasis and choice of language was markedly different from Nigel Farage's both in the House of Commons and in an online video he posted.
MPs repeatedly shouted at Farage in the chamber, saying he should condemn the violence, but he didn't.
So where do the campaigns find themselves in Makerfield, with a little under a fortnight to go before polling day?
The parties are well aware postal votes are beginning to arrive for those who have requested them.
Labour appear cautiously confident. Reform are competitive.
And Restore Britain, the party set up by the former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, and broadly speaking challenging Reform to its right, appear to be showing the potential to chip away at Reform's support.
Polling in a single constituency is difficult because of the challenge of finding a representative sample in a small area, but Survation are giving it a go.
Their latest poll suggests support for Labour is at 49%, Reform is at 39% and Restore is at 8%.
What looks like a healthy lead from Labour's perspective is much tighter when Reform and Restore's vote is combined, hence Reform's emphasis locally that this is a two horse race and a vote for Restore could make it easier for Labour to win.
These numbers match the existing sentiment I have picked up from the two leading parties in the contest - but with both saying there is plenty of time to go and plenty of people who have not yet made up their minds.
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