Despite growing discontent within Labour ranks, MPs are holding back from an immediate leadership challenge against Sir Keir Starmer, even as the party faces dismal polling numbers and anticipated losses in upcoming elections.
One Labour MP, Jonathan Brash, has publicly called for Starmer to resign and set a departure timetable, with some colleagues privately agreeing. However, no other MPs have echoed this call publicly, and the prevailing mood appears to oppose an imminent challenge.
A long-standing Labour MP captured the sentiment: "Keir Starmer is basically dead, isn't he? Because people think it's inevitable he won't lead us into the next election, there isn't the rush."
While discussions about a caretaker leader have surfaced, many MPs remain hesitant. As one explained: "We have to be sure that when there is a contest we can have a candidate who can lead us into the next election." They added that frequent leadership changes would damage trust, and finding a candidate who can reinspire both the party and voters remains elusive.
Remarkably, both left and right factions agree there's no obvious leader-in-waiting currently in Parliament. A centre-left MP noted: "The PLP thinks the situation is terminal—but we've thought that since February. We don't have an option in Wes [Streeting] because of the Mandelson situation, and there's a growing 'stop Ange' [Angela Rayner] mood because we don't think she'd win an election."
A left-wing MP added that Rayner appears "compromised" by her tax affairs and lucrative speaking engagements.
Beyond Westminster, Andy Burnham's name continues to circulate as a potential candidate. A former frontbencher observed: "The problem is that the solution isn't in Westminster. He is the person who just about everyone could live with—unless you are Wes Streeting."
However, Burnham faces significant hurdles, including needing to secure a safe seat and approval from Labour's National Executive Committee. One MP suggested Starmer's decision to block Burnham's Westminster candidacy was politically astute: "If Andy had been back in Westminster, things would have moved by now."
Some ministers are taking a fatalistic view. One told us: "Starmer is seriously unpopular. I think we're going to lose the next election. The only way we win is if people feel better off, and I haven't heard a serious argument from any possible candidate about how they could achieve that in such a short space of time."
Attention is turning to cabinet ministers who might orchestrate a leadership change, similar to how Margaret Thatcher was persuaded to resign decades ago. One MP noted: "Lots of cabinet ministers seem to know that he's not going to lead us into the next election—the question is whether they want to force something to happen soon or wait until it's too late."
Signs of fraying loyalties have emerged, with Energy Secretary Ed Miliband distancing himself from the controversial appointment of Lord Mandelson as ambassador to the US, and other ministers criticizing communication missteps. One influential figure interpreted this as "serious cabinet ministers are not prepared to defend [the PM] or sully themselves."
Another MP described the cabinet dynamic: "They're looking for life rafts. They're thinking six months ahead, saying they'd still very much like to be in the cabinet. Someone else's cabinet."
Despite the turmoil, Starmer continues working behind the scenes to shore up support among skeptical MPs, though his position appears increasingly precarious as the party navigates its deepening crisis.