California's 2026 gubernatorial contest has descended into chaos for Democrats following the abrupt withdrawal of their leading candidate, Representative Eric Swalwell, amid sexual misconduct allegations. The congressman's departure has left the party scrambling in a state where they typically dominate, raising the startling possibility that Republicans could shut Democrats out of the general election entirely.
"This would be an unforced error of historic proportions if Democrats fail to coordinate so badly that a Republican wins in a state where Donald Trump's approval rating is a little less than 30%," said Eric Schickler, a political science professor at the University of California, Berkeley.
Swalwell announced his exit from the race on Sunday, just days after The San Francisco Chronicle and CNN published accounts from multiple women alleging inappropriate conduct. The congressman has denied the accusations but acknowledged "mistakes in judgement I've made in my past." Hours after his gubernatorial withdrawal, Swalwell revealed he would resign from Congress as the House Ethics Committee launched an investigation.
Democratic troubles in California began well before these allegations surfaced. With Governor Gavin Newsom term-limited and high-profile figures like former Vice-President Kamala Harris declining to run, eight lesser-known Democratic candidates have struggled to gain traction in the state's enormous media market. A March poll from UC Berkeley's Institute of Governmental Studies revealed a political earthquake: two Republican candidates were leading as Democrats splintered their base.
California's unique primary system—which advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party—means Democrats could be entirely absent from November's gubernatorial ballot for the first time in modern history. The state hasn't elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011.
"This is the most unsettled race for California governor I've ever seen," said Garry South, a veteran Democratic strategist who has managed four gubernatorial campaigns in the state. "The Democratic field was already pretty muddled, even after Swalwell took a small lead. Now, it's just an outright morass."
With Swalwell's departure, attention turns to former Congresswoman Katie Porter and billionaire climate advocate Tom Steyer as potential standard-bearers for Democrats. Neither represents a sure bet—Porter has faced reports of mistreating staff, while Steyer has spent $89 million on advertisements without corresponding poll gains.
Voter confusion and apathy compound the Democratic dilemma. "I don't even know half the people running," said Joko Tamura, 58, a Santa Monica Democrat who cites homelessness and living costs as key concerns. "I haven't seen a primary election for governor with this level of indecision, and lack of voter enthusiasm, with less than two months to go before voting starts," added Mark DiCamillo, who conducted the shocking Berkeley poll.
As candidates jockey for position, Porter has emphasized economic messaging around California's housing crisis, while Steyer released a video detailing plans to "make California more affordable." The outcome carries national implications—as the world's fifth-largest economy, California's environmental, consumer, and tech policies often inspire regulations across the United States.
With the June primary approaching and no clear Democratic frontrunner emerging, the party faces its most uncertain political moment in California in decades.