Imagine you had $135 to spare. Would you rather buy a stack of lottery tickets or a single share of SpaceX? According to a recent analysis, the lottery might actually be the smarter bet.
SpaceX, Elon Musk's rocket company, is preparing to go public at a share price so high that the company would need to grow revenue by 50% every year until 2035 to reach $1.1 trillion — just to give investors a 10% return. That's a moonshot by any measure.
While SpaceX is still operating at a loss and expected to burn more cash in the coming years, the potential payoff for early investors is enormous. But here's the catch: only one person is guaranteed to become a trillionaire from this IPO — Elon Musk himself.
"You have a better chance of getting struck by lightning."
In fact, the odds of winning a major lottery jackpot are about 1 in 300 million. Some scratch-off games offer better odds — around 1 in 12 — but the payouts are much smaller. After spending $110 on scratch-offs and $25 on Mega Millions and Powerball tickets, our test run resulted in a $30 loss.
Still, for many people living paycheck to paycheck, the lottery represents one of the few perceived paths to wealth. And when you compare those odds to the chances of SpaceX delivering blockbuster returns, the lottery doesn't look so irrational.
Here's the twist: even if you don't buy SpaceX stock directly, you might own it anyway through a 401(k) index fund. So whether you like it or not, you're along for the ride.
In the end, Elon Musk stands to be the biggest winner. If everything goes according to plan, he'll become the world's first trillionaire. For everyone else? Well, your odds are not in your favor.