At an education consultancy in Delhi, students and parents now browse brochures from Italy, Germany, and Australia—with Canada conspicuously absent from their considerations.
"Until 2023, most of our applications were for Canada," says Shobhit Anand, who runs the consultancy. "Now we've seen a drop of nearly 80%. People don't want to apply anymore, and we're seeing very high visa rejection rates."
Recent data confirms this dramatic shift. According to Canada's auditor general, Indian students comprised just 8.1% of incoming international students in September 2025—a stark decline from 51.6% in 2023.
For years, Canada represented a golden opportunity for middle-class Indian families. Its private colleges offered what seemed like a reliable pathway: enroll in vocational courses, graduate, find employment, and apply for permanent residency within approximately five years.
"The route was mostly straightforward—until it wasn't," experts note.
The reversal stems from multiple factors converging simultaneously. In early 2024, Canada implemented a two-year cap on international student admissions for undergraduate and diploma programs, limiting them to about 350,000 study permits annually. Postgraduate courses remained unaffected, but the restriction dealt a significant blow to many Indian applicants.
Financial barriers have also intensified. The Guaranteed Investment Certificate requirement—proof of funds needed to study and live in Canada—doubled from C$10,000 to over C$20,000 in 2024.
"For many families, securing that amount is difficult," explains Sushil Sukhwani of Edwise Overseas Education. "With the risk of visa rejection, they hesitate. That became a major barrier."
Visa rejections have indeed increased dramatically. According to ICEF Monitor, study permit refusal rates rose from 38% in 2023 to 52% in 2024. In price-sensitive markets like India, where studying abroad requires careful financial planning, families have become increasingly risk-averse.
"There's real fear," Anand observes. "Even if you get there, can you make it work?"
The auditor general's report also highlighted issues with the now-scrapped Student Direct Stream (SDS), a fast-track visa system popular among Indian applicants. While approval rates under SDS for Indians soared from 61% in 2022 to 98% in 2024, officials flagged concerns about fraudulent applications, non-attendance, and rising asylum claims. The program was terminated by late 2024, with scrutiny tightening significantly afterward.
Employment prospects present another major concern. During what experts call the "international student boom," many private colleges expanded rapidly but offered limited academic value, operating primarily as revenue-driven enterprises. Job opportunities failed to keep pace with graduate numbers, leaving many students unable to recoup their substantial educational investments.
Anand recalls a former student who moved to Canada two years ago: "After completing his course, the 24-year-old struggled to find stable work and relied on part-time jobs. He could not make ends meet." The student has since returned to India seeking employment.
McGill University president Deep Saini notes that Indian students generally fall into two categories: "One group is academically driven—they apply to top universities in Canada, the U.S., or Europe for quality education. The other sees education primarily as a migration pathway and tends to enroll in smaller colleges."
This distinction explains who felt the policy changes most acutely. Canada's visa restrictions primarily targeted students using smaller colleges as cheaper routes to permanent residency, rather than those pursuing academic excellence at prestigious institutions.
Top universities like McGill experienced only a slight dip in international admissions after 2023, which Saini attributes to both tighter visa rules and diplomatic tensions—what he calls "collateral damage" rather than a direct impact. International student numbers, particularly from India, are now returning to normal at such institutions.
As one consultant summarizes: "The question has shifted from how to go to Canada to whether to go at all."