Europe faces a critical aviation fuel shortage, with reserves potentially lasting only six weeks, according to a stark warning from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The crisis stems from the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for Middle Eastern jet fuel exports, due to regional tensions.
"If Europe was unable to replace more than 50% of its Middle Eastern imports, physical shortages may emerge at select airports, resulting in flight cancellations," the IEA cautioned in its latest report.
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blocked for over six weeks following Iranian actions in response to US and Israeli military operations. This disruption has sent jet fuel prices soaring to record highs and threatens to destabilize global aviation markets just before the peak summer travel season.
European nations are now scrambling to secure alternative supplies, primarily from the United States and Nigeria. However, analysts warn these new sources can only compensate for slightly more than half of the lost Middle Eastern imports. The IEA noted that Europe has historically depended on the Gulf region for about 75% of its jet fuel.
Amaar Khan, head of European jet fuel pricing at Argus Media, expressed concern about the timing: "It's looking more and more likely that there will be a shortage of some extent in some areas of Europe. Even if supply does resume from the Gulf, it will take five to six weeks to reach European markets."
The financial impact is already being felt across the industry. EasyJet reported £25 million in additional fuel costs for March alone, despite having secured most of its fuel at fixed prices beforehand. KLM announced it will cancel 160 European flights in the coming month due to rising operational expenses.
While UK officials maintain there is "currently not seeing disruption to supply," industry groups are urging governments to prepare contingency measures. Airlines for Europe has called on the EU to classify potential fuel shortages as "extraordinary circumstances" to protect carriers from massive compensation payments if flights are cancelled.
The European Commission acknowledged there could be supply issues "in the near future" but stated there is currently "no evidence of fuel shortages" within the EU. Commission officials confirmed that oil and gas coordination groups are meeting weekly, with new energy measures expected to be announced shortly.
As the situation develops, airlines worldwide are implementing emergency measures to manage fuel costs that typically constitute 20-40% of their operating expenses. The benchmark European jet fuel price reached an unprecedented $1,838 per tonne in early April, more than double its pre-crisis level.