Goldman Sachs has once again revised its oil price forecasts upward, citing mounting disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and reduced output from the Persian Gulf region. The investment bank now expects Brent crude to hit $90 per barrel by the fourth quarter, according to Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman.
Speaking on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily, Struyven explained that the latest upgrade assumes a normalization of Gulf exports by the end of June, but ongoing instability continues to pressure prices. "We've seen a significant shock to supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, and that's not going away quickly," he said.
The revised outlook follows a series of increases by Goldman as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist. The strait, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, has seen heightened disruptions, leading analysts to warn of sustained price hikes. Struyven noted that even after the strait reopens, logistical challenges could keep markets tight for months.
"We're looking at a scenario where the recovery in production and transit takes longer than many expect," he said. The bank's forecast reflects a broader consensus among commodity experts that energy markets face a prolonged period of volatility.