Baghdad, Iraq – More than five months after parliamentary elections, Iraq's dominant Shia political alliance remains gridlocked over selecting a prime ministerial candidate, with internal rivalries complicating the process amid heightened regional tensions.
The Coordination Framework, which holds about 185 of parliament's 329 seats, faces a constitutional deadline of April 26 to nominate a prime minister. The bloc's internal divisions pit incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, seeking a second term, against supporters of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whose candidacy faces strong opposition from the United States.
Iraq finds itself in a delicate diplomatic position, balancing relations between Washington and Tehran as the US-Israel conflict with Iran spills into Iraqi territory. Pro-Iranian armed groups have conducted attacks on US assets in solidarity with Iran, further straining Baghdad's position.
Iran's influence in Iraqi politics remains substantial, cultivated through Shia parties since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. Recent developments saw Ismail Qaani, head of Iran's Quds Force, make an unannounced weekend visit to Baghdad aimed at breaking the leadership impasse, according to sources familiar with the discussions.
Qaani reportedly met with key figures including Abu Fadak al-Mohammadawi, chief of staff of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), as well as al-Maliki, al-Sudani, and other Coordination Framework leaders. The PMF, an umbrella organization of mostly Shia armed groups, includes factions with close ties to Iran and forms part of the broader "Axis of Resistance" across the Middle East.
"The Iranians face a bigger existential challenge – the US-Israeli war – and are not interested in settling the Iraqi PM file. They want a weak prime minister through whom they can get what they want," said Akeel Abbas, a Washington-based researcher.
Under Iraq's power-sharing system established after 2003, the presidency goes to Kurds, the speakership to Sunni Arabs, and the prime minister's position to Shia Arabs. The recent April 11 appointment of Nizar Amedi as president after months of political maneuvering now triggers a 15-day window for the Coordination Framework to nominate a prime minister.
The bloc's general secretariat has called a meeting for Monday with a single agenda item: selecting the prime ministerial candidate. According to an internal source, three previous meetings on the matter were postponed due to leaders' inability to agree on a name.
Framework leaders appear to favor a prime minister who won't challenge the larger Shia bloc's authority. Unlike al-Sudani and al-Maliki, who lead their own political parties, Bassem al-Badri – current head of the Accountability and Justice Commission – has emerged as a compromise candidate.
Al-Badri currently has backing from seven of the Framework's twelve leaders but needs eight (a two-thirds majority under bloc rules) to secure nomination. It remains unclear whether Qaani's visit has altered this calculus.
"Al-Maliki knows he cannot pass, especially after US President Trump's post on X," said Mehdi Khaz'al, a political analyst. In January, Trump warned that Iraq would be making a "very bad choice" should it choose al-Maliki, recalling that "last time Maliki was in power, the Country descended into poverty and total chaos."
Al-Maliki, who entered the race in January, dismissed Trump's threats as a "violation of Iraqi sovereignty." However, Iraqi politicians face difficult calculations as the country's oil exports have plummeted amid regional conflict.
"That is why al-Maliki is backing al-Badri as an alternative candidate. But there is no winning formula inside the Framework yet, and there won't be one until the results of the Iranian-US negotiations become clear," Khaz'al noted.