A series of newly created accounts on the prediction market Polymarket placed highly profitable bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire just hours before President Donald Trump announced the truce, raising questions about potential insider information.
Despite escalating rhetoric from Trump earlier on April 7, including a social media warning that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran didn't meet his demands, at least 50 new accounts placed substantial "Yes" bets on a ceasefire before the president's announcement at approximately 6:30 p.m. ET.
Analysis of blockchain data reveals one wallet, created around 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday, placed approximately $72,000 in bets at an average price of 8.8 cents per contract, later cashing out with a $200,000 profit.
Another account, established on April 6, shows winnings of $125,500 from the same event. A third wallet, created just 12 minutes before Trump's announcement, made $31,908 in "Yes" bets at 33.7 cents and is estimated to have earned $48,500 in profit.
The timing of these bets is particularly notable given the lack of public signals suggesting an imminent ceasefire agreement. Some analysts speculate the bets may reflect expectations that Trump would back down from his threats—a pattern critics have labeled "Trump Always Chickens Out" or TACO.
Polymarket has labeled the ceasefire contract as "disputed" due to ongoing restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and continued missile attacks in the region, delaying payouts for some users while the platform investigates.
Public blockchain data cannot identify who controls these new wallets, and Polymarket uses proxy smart contracts that allow single users to create multiple accounts. Only the platform's internal data could determine whether these were genuinely new users or existing participants creating additional accounts.