A bitter dispute over defence spending has erupted within the UK government, exposing tensions over how to keep the country safe. Two departing defence ministers have accused Prime Minister Keir Starmer of failing to provide the necessary funds to meet the nation's security commitments.
The government currently allocates about £66 billion for defence, supporting the armed forces and the nuclear deterrent. However, critics argue that successive governments have mismanaged defence spending, cutting budgets after the Cold War and failing to increase them as global threats grew. The Ministry of Defence has been criticised for botched procurement, delivering new equipment late and over budget.
The context of this row is a rapidly changing world. Threats from non-state actors like al-Qaeda and ISIS have diminished, while state-on-state aggression from Russia and Iran has increased. The nature of warfare is shifting towards drones, cyber, and space, with a focus on mass production of cheap, lethal projectiles. Meanwhile, the US has demanded European allies meet NATO spending targets.
In response, the government made bold promises: raising defence spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP next year, and committing to 3.5% by 2035. Prime Minister Starmer pledged to "spend more faster." But the delayed "defence investment plan" has failed to deliver the money needed to meet these commitments. Defence chiefs warned they needed an additional £28 billion over four years; after Whitehall battles, the figure was slashed to around £13 billion. Former Defence Secretary John Healey resigned, stating he was being forced to make decisions that would reduce readiness and make the country less safe.
The uncertainty is crippling defence firms and leaving military services in limbo. Key questions remain: Will the army get its AI digital targeting system? Will the navy and air force see their modernization plans delayed? In his resignation letter, Minister Al Carns said, "We are still purchasing capability suitable for the last war while our adversaries arm for the next one."
With Nato meetings imminent, the UK faces a credibility crisis among allies. Next week, new Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis meets Nato counterparts in Brussels; he must outline plans to resolve the crisis. The UK is slipping down the alliance's spending targets and nearly at the bottom for meeting capability targets. At a summit in Turkey next month, Starmer will confront fellow Nato leaders, including Donald Trump, over defence spending. Tough conversations lie ahead.