After six consecutive weeks of sharp increases, petrol and diesel prices in the United Kingdom have begun to fall, according to the latest data from the RAC motoring organisation. The decline, though modest, marks the first reversal since geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region triggered a global oil price spike.
Pump prices started to ease on Thursday and continued into Friday. Diesel has decreased by 0.6 pence per litre, bringing the average cost to just below 191p, while petrol has dropped by 0.3p to just under 158p per litre.
Simon Williams, head of policy at the RAC, expressed cautious optimism: "We're hopeful there will be further reductions amounting to several pence a litre in the coming days. After record price rises, drivers will be relieved to finally see prices going the other way."
The recent surge was driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint for oil shipments, following the outbreak of hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran. This disruption caused wholesale fuel costs to skyrocket, pushing average diesel prices from 142p to nearly 192p per litre and petrol from 133p to over 158p over the past six weeks.
Despite the slight reprieve, filling up remains significantly more expensive than in late February. A typical diesel tank now costs about £26 more, while a petrol fill-up is nearly £14 higher.
The price fluctuations have intensified financial strain for many households. A recent Office for National Statistics survey revealed that 75% of people cited fuel costs as a reason for increased living expenses in March, up sharply from 38% in February.
Aman Navani, a senior research and policy analyst at Lancaster University's Work Foundation, highlighted the broader economic impact: "The rise in fuel prices comes at a time when nominal wage growth has fallen sharply, and private sector workers have seen paltry real wage increases. Low-income and insecure workers have little buffer against rising costs as the impact of the war in the Middle East hits the UK."
Market analysts point to a recent retreat in crude oil prices as the primary reason for the pump price decline. Brent crude, which had surged above $119 per barrel in mid-March, has fallen back below $100 following the announcement of a temporary ceasefire in the region. Historically, a $10 movement in oil prices translates to roughly a 7p change at the pump.
While current prices remain below the record highs seen in summer 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the RAC anticipates further gradual decreases if wholesale market conditions remain stable.