The prospect of Sir Keir Starmer stepping down as Prime Minister is growing by the hour, with Labour insiders now convinced a leadership change is imminent. The party, which swept to power less than two years ago, finds itself in turmoil as Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, prepares to launch a bid for the top job.
Starmer spent the weekend at Chequers with his wife, while Burnham remained with his family away from home. The reasons for Labour to switch leader are compelling: Burnham has demonstrated he can defeat Reform UK, a party that has loomed as a deadly threat to Labour. He is popular across the country and has a track record as health secretary, culture secretary, and Treasury minister. His recent by-election campaign in Makerfield showcased his ability to inspire optimism—a quality many in Westminster Labour have forgotten.
"He's an instinctive guy—that's his great talent," said one source. Another backer noted, "He's been successful and highly visible as Mayor, known just as Andy everywhere he goes."
Labour's desperation stems from a series of setbacks: over a dozen major U-turns, resignations, the fiasco over Lord Mandelson's appointment, and devastating election losses in Wales in 2025 and 2026. Starmer, once seen as a winner after his historic 2024 general election victory, now appears to many in his party as a loser. The political perception of his appeal has evaporated.
On Friday, Starmer insisted to cameras that he would fight if challenged, but the assumption in the party is that Burnham would triumph. A government insider said, "It's nuts to imagine the PM could come out on top." Even loyal cabinet ministers now believe it's time for a change. One cabinet source remarked, "They wouldn't want the prime minister to humiliate himself in a race."
However, anger towards Burnham runs deep inside Downing Street. A Starmer ally complained, "This is not a chase; these are big decisions about who is going to run the country—it can't be rushed 20 minutes after a by-election." Critics question what Burnham would actually do in office. Former minister Jess Philips urged that any candidate must be "tested with the rigour of at least some manner of contest." Government minister Mike Tapp admitted he had never met Burnham and didn't know his politics. Another backer accused Burnham of falling apart under tough questioning during the by-election campaign.
There is also unease about ousting a leader based on a single by-election—the votes of just 77,000 people deciding the nation's fate. Burnham would lack a public mandate without a general election. Could other figures from the past, such as David Miliband or Ed Balls, stage comebacks?
As the number of MPs calling for Starmer to go surpasses 100 and support within the cabinet fades, one senior figure predicts, "He'll realise this weekend that he can't keep the cabinet and ministers together and will have to go." Another veteran figure concluded, "It's done."
Starmer's achievement in restoring Labour to power after the 2019 crash was remarkable, but his premiership has been marked by frustration and failure. One party source said bluntly, "The fundamental part of the job of prime minister and Labour Party leader is to be a political leader, and he is neither political nor a leader." The vow not to repeat the Conservatives' revolving door of prime ministers may be the last promise Starmer breaks.