MANILA, Philippines – The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) is expected to hover near the 6,000-point level this week, with analysts predicting a range-bound performance as geopolitical risks and elevated oil prices continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
According to brokerage firm 2TradeAsia, the main index is likely to face immediate support at 5,800, with resistance levels set at 6,050 and a secondary ceiling at 6,300. The forecast comes after the PSEi closed last week at 5,999.13, marking a decline of 99 points or 1.62 percent.
Michael Ricafort, chief economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., highlighted a key catalyst for global and local markets: the impending expiration of a two-week US-Iran truce on April 21. "Upcoming local data include the April 20 balance of payments and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ meeting—with a possible rate hike—and the April 23 budget balance report," Ricafort added.
Investors remain cautious amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran. Concerns are particularly focused on potential disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route, which has maintained a "war premium" in crude oil prices.
"Diplomatic negotiations remain fundamentally stalled and this impasse has created a ceiling for global market sentiment," 2TradeAsia noted. The firm suggested that markets may move sideways until clearer developments emerge.
Sectoral performance last week was broadly negative, with holding firms dropping 2.93 percent, financials sliding 1.22 percent, and services losing 1.58 percent. Industrials slipped 0.67 percent, while property fell 1.67 percent. Mining and oil was the sole gainer, rising 0.24 percent.
The market's early optimism, fueled by a temporary easing of Middle East tensions, faded as renewed selling pressure took hold, reflecting the fragile investor confidence in the face of persistent geopolitical headwinds.