The United Arab Emirates' decision to leave OPEC is being hailed by analysts as a major setback for the oil producers' group, with one describing it as "the beginning of the end of OPEC." This move comes amid significant oil market volatility, including the US-Israel conflict with Iran that triggered the largest recorded oil supply loss, according to the World Bank.
Here, through five charts, we explore OPEC's role in oil pricing and what the UAE's departure could mean.
1. What is OPEC and who is in it?
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) was founded in 1960 by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela to coordinate oil production and ensure stable revenues. Members now include Algeria, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, and the Republic of Congo. In 2016, OPEC formed the wider OPEC+ alliance with 10 other producers, including Russia.
2. What does OPEC do?
OPEC influences global oil prices by agreeing on production levels. Increasing supply aims to lower prices, while reducing supply seeks to keep prices high when demand is weak. A key example was the 1973 Arab oil embargo against US-led countries supporting Israel during the Yom Kippur War, which caused oil prices to double and led to fuel rationing. More recently, during the COVID-19 pandemic, OPEC+ slashed production to boost prices. Its response to the Russia-Ukraine war was more cautious, with a slight production increase followed by cuts later in 2022.
Critics, including US President Donald Trump, argue OPEC has kept prices artificially high by limiting supply. However, analyst Maurizio Carulli notes that OPEC's influence has varied over decades, as members often fail to adhere to agreed quotas.
3. UAE is among OPEC's top exporters
The UAE was the world's third-largest oil exporter in 2025, after Saudi Arabia and Iraq, per OPEC data. However, current global events—including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz—have disrupted exports. While the strait remains blocked, Carulli says the UAE's exit will have "zero" short-term impact on exports.
4. UAE's oil production capacity
The UAE is OPEC's fourth-largest producer, pumping 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader, produced over 9 million barrels daily. Experts suggest the UAE could boost production by around 1 million barrels per day after leaving OPEC.
5. OPEC's waning influence
OPEC's share of global oil production has fallen from 52.5% in 1973 to 36.7% in 2025, as non-OPEC countries like the US, Canada, and Brazil have increased output. The US has been the top global oil producer since 2018, with 13.6 million barrels per day in 2024. Russia, an OPEC+ member, was the second-largest producer in 2025 at 9.1 million barrels per day.
Carulli says influence over pricing has "shifted" to the US recently, as Gulf OPEC members cannot export oil due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. Charles-Henry Monchau, CIO of Syz Group, calls the UAE's exit "the end of OPEC as we knew it," adding that while the cartel has survived wars and collapses, "what it has never really survived is the loss of a founding-era major producer." OPEC will continue, he says, "but with materially less ability to set prices."