World Cup Semifinal Power Rankings: Which Team Has the Edge for the Trophy?
With just four teams left standing in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the race for the trophy is tighter than ever. Here's our ranking of the contenders from least to most likely to lift the title at New York New Jersey Stadium on July 19.
4. Argentina
Despite being the defending champions, Argentina's path to the semifinals has been anything but convincing. A relatively kind draw saw them face Algeria, Austria, Jordan, Cape Verde, Egypt, and Switzerland—yet they struggled against lower-ranked opponents, needing dramatic comebacks and extra time to progress. Against Switzerland, they managed just one shot on target in 90 minutes before eventually winning in extra time. Lionel Messi has not been at his best, and the team's aging core may be running out of steam. To beat England, they'll need a massive improvement, and even then, a final against Spain or France seems a step too far.
3. England
England have reached the semifinals for only the fourth time, largely on grit and individual brilliance rather than dominant performances. Jude Bellingham has been their standout, carrying the team with six goals—just two behind the tournament's top scorers. They've relied on counterattacks and late surges, as seen in their round-of-16 win over Mexico and quarterfinal victory over Norway. With no suspensions and key players returning to fitness, England have reason for optimism. However, they have yet to face a team of Argentina's caliber, and their lack of control in matches could be exposed. If they overcome the Three Lions' historical baggage, a final berth is possible, but beating France or Spain would require a monumental effort.
2. Spain
Spain boast the tournament's best defense, having conceded only one goal in six matches—a streak of 649 minutes without conceding, a World Cup record. Lamine Yamal is showing glimpses of his pre-injury form, and Mikel Merino has become a hero with last-gasp winners. However, their attack has been inconsistent, with top scorer Mikel Oyarzabal fading in recent games. The biggest test awaits against France's formidable forward line, which could expose young defender Pau Cubarsi. Spain have beaten France in their last two meetings, but reaching the final would make them favorites—yet overcoming Les Bleus may be beyond them this time.
1. France
France enter the semifinals as the clear frontrunners, boasting the tournament's strongest attack with Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola, and Michael Olise. Their depth and experience make them the team to beat, and they have the firepower to overwhelm any defense. After a dominating quarterfinal performance, they look poised to avenge their 2022 final loss to Argentina. With a balanced squad and a winning mentality, France have the best chance to lift the trophy.
The semifinals promise high drama as these four giants clash for a spot in the final. Who will rise to the occasion?