All eyes are on the parliamentary seat of Makerfield in Wigan, Greater Manchester, as a by-election scheduled for June 18 could shape the future of the Labour Party and the next prime minister. The contest was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons, who stepped down to allow Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to run for the seat. If elected, Burnham is expected to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for Labour's leadership.
Makerfield is a constituency of about 76,000 voters in the suburbs of Wigan and former mining towns, despite not being an actual place—its name derives from the area's historical association. While part of Greater Manchester, many residents still identify as Lancastrians.
The seat has been Labour for over 120 years, but recent shifts have made it a battleground. In the 2024 general election, Simons held the seat with a majority of just over 5,000, with Reform UK coming second. At the recent local elections, Nigel Farage's party swept all seats in Makerfield, signaling a potential upset.
Professor Jon Tonge from the University of Liverpool said, "This is exactly the sort of place that Reform can expect to do well," noting that 96% of the constituency is white British-born and 65% voted to leave the EU. However, he cautioned that by-elections often see voters "kick" the incumbent government, which could complicate Reform's chances.
Local voters express mixed feelings. Helen Lawson, a cafe owner, said the by-election is "good" but wants politicians to follow through on promises, while another shopper called it "a betrayal" of those who voted for the previous MP.
With Labour's safe seat suddenly vulnerable, the outcome could have national implications. As Tonge put it, "The voters of Makerfield are, in all probability, shaping who our next prime minister will be."