It has become a grim joke in EU circles that whenever leaders gather—as they did this week in Cyprus to discuss practical matters like the new EU budget—they are derailed by yet another crisis. The ongoing energy crisis fueled by the US-Israel war on Iran, Russia's aggression in Ukraine now in its fourth year, and this Friday morning, souring relations between Europe and the United States over defense priorities reared its head again.
"No worries," Spain’s determinedly calm Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez told reporters upon arriving at the summit. "We are fulfilling our obligations toward NATO."
What prompted his reassurance? A leaked email from the US Pentagon, first reported by Reuters, suggested measures to punish allies deemed insufficiently supportive of the US-Israel campaign against Iran. The email indicated the US could seek to suspend Spain from NATO over its stance.
However, NATO treaties contain no provision for expelling a member. Any move to bar Spain from key civilian or military roles—also hinted at in the email—would require unanimous consent from all NATO members.
Fellow EU leaders at the Cyprus summit, who are also NATO members, swiftly defended Spain. Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten stated he wanted to be "crystal clear" that Spain is and will remain a full NATO member. He noted European countries are "doing a great deal to strengthen NATO," which he said also serves America's interests.
A high-ranking German official remarked, "Spain is a member of NATO. And I see no reason why that should change."
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni—once seen as a potential go-between with Donald Trump—criticized the tensions between Washington and Madrid as "not at all positive." Growing public opinion in Italy and across Europe has turned against Trump, forcing Meloni to take a stance against her erstwhile ally. She has denied the US permission to use the Sigonella airbase for operations against Iran and described Trump's recent derogatory remarks about the Pope as "unacceptable." Trump retaliated by calling her "unacceptable" in an Italian newspaper interview.
The leaked email also raised a possible shift in US support for the UK's claim to the Falkland Islands, citing Trump's anger with British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer over initial refusal to allow use of British bases for strikes on Iran. Although the UK has since permitted base usage and participated in shooting down Iranian drones, Starmer insists greater involvement is not in the UK's interest.
Spain appears to be a particular target of Trump's ire. Sanchez was outspoken against US-Israeli strikes on Iran, calling them illegal, and denied US forces access to joint bases. Trump has threatened trade sanctions, and Sanchez previously refused Trump's demand to boost defense spending to 5% of GDP—the only NATO member to do so.
Spain dismisses the leaked email. Sanchez commented, "We do not work based on emails. We work with official documents and official positions."
Camille Grande, former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defence Investment, said the email betrays a "fundamental misunderstanding" of NATO. "The alliance is based on consensus, not run by the United States," she said, comparing Trump to a landlord seeking to expel tenants who don't pay enough rent—but noting NATO is not Trump's building.
French President Emmanuel Macron accused Trump of "hollowing out" NATO by repeatedly undermining the alliance. Trump has called NATO a "paper tiger" and threatened to leave, posting that it is a "one-way street."
These public displays of disunity are potentially damaging for European defense. Eastern European countries feel threatened by an expansionist Russia, whose war economy is buoyed by oil exports amid the energy crisis. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk openly questioned whether the US would honor its Article 5 commitment to defend allies under attack.
NATO assesses Russia could be ready to attack a NATO nation in three years. Dutch military intelligence MIVD warned that after the Ukraine war, Moscow could initiate a regional conflict against NATO within a year, aiming to politically divide the alliance through limited territorial gains, even under threat of nuclear escalation.
Estonia, a high-defense-spending NATO member, faced a setback when the Pentagon delayed delivery of six High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems due to US needs in the Iran war. The US Embassy had called the purchase "one of the most significant capability upgrades in Estonian military history." Estonia now feels exposed, despite being ostensibly in Trump's good graces.