An ally of Prime Minister Keir Starmer reveals that for months, No. 10 has been preoccupied with two questions: Does Wes Streeting have the numbers? And does Andy Burnham have a seat? Streeting has now resigned from government to prepare for a leadership bid, while Burnham has secured a willing MP to vacate their seat, launching his long-anticipated attempt to return to Parliament and eventually No. 10. Though not official, the contest to replace Starmer is underway.
Opinions among Labour MPs are divided. One cabinet minister says the public is horrified by the prospect of replacing the leader, while another insists the recent election results must be respected. Labour's factions have decided it's time for a contest, but Starmer still faces momentous choices that affect the nation.
If the challengers' plans succeed, a leadership contest could occur over the summer, with a new leader in place by the party conference in late September. However, this timeline is far from confirmed. Some senior figures propose an "accommodation" between Burnham and Streeting to avoid a catastrophic contest, while others predict Burnham might be coronated unopposed due to his momentum. Yet, this view is not universal, as some in government are furious with Burnham and demand a contest to air differences.
Burnham's bid to become an MP again is not guaranteed. Reform UK will heavily contest his seat in Makerfield, backed by strong finances and poll leads. If Burnham loses, his support could shift to Angela Rayner, or MPs might rally back to Starmer. Despite the upheaval, world events continue: the UK and France are building a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a NATO summit looms, and an EU summit focuses on closer UK-EU ties.
Domestically, Starmer's in-tray overflows: a delayed defence spending plan, a consultation on children's social media rules closing soon, households awaiting energy bill help, an unfinished fuel duty review, and pressing issues on public sector pay, AI regulation, youth employment, mental health, migration, and NHS staffing. Major structural challenges like social care and welfare reform also demand decisions—government doesn't stop despite leadership uncertainty.
Can Starmer act with authority? One minister insists he must crack on while still in office. But Labour MPs doubt his tenure is long, limiting his ability to push controversial policies. Cabinet ministers no longer depend on his favour. Starmer's struggle with decisive action—a trait shared with Theresa May and Boris Johnson—has eroded his leadership. As one former supporter noted, "Where we've gone wrong is lacking a clarity of conviction and belief in our project." Changing leadership mid-government causes huge disruption, a fact Starmer knows well from his time in opposition.